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Apply percentage-based assumptions to forecasts while preserving underlying patterns

Investment Thesis

Every customer and prospect does scenario modelling in Excel because no TMS handles it well. Simple percentage-based adjustments that preserve underlying weekly/daily patterns are more valuable than complex scenario trees. First to solve this elegantly wins.

Desired Outcomes

Current Focus

These are the outcomes we're actively investing in.

# Desired Outcome Evidence
1 Minimize the risk of overestimating collections or underestimating outflows Personio
2 Increase the ability to model scenarios quickly (e.g., -5% on collections) Personio
3 Reduce manual effort in creating multiple forecast scenarios Personio, Levi's, ON
4 Minimize the loss of weekly/daily patterns when adjusting forecast totals Personio

Already Addressed

No existing features directly address this job yet.

Not Yet Addressed

Known outcomes we're not focusing on yet.

Desired Outcome Evidence
Minimize difficulty of remembering past forecast assumptions Instacart
Increase ability to attribute variance to assumption changes vs actuals variance Instacart
Reduce unexplained variance by tracking all assumption changes systematically Instacart
Minimize manual translation between accrual-based budget and cash forecast Instacart
Minimize manual input by using reusable percentage-based adjustments for market disruptors Levi's
Increase transparency of adjustment reasons for future analysis Levi's
Minimize the ad-hoc nature of investment decisions throughout the month Personio

Current Approach

Stage: Skateboard (Validate)

Building an "Assumptions Studio" — a simple interface for applying percentage-based adjustments to ML forecasts at category level. Key design principle: preserve underlying weekly/daily patterns when adjusting totals. Users should be able to save named scenarios and compare them side-by-side.

What's Validated

  • Apply assumptions to forecast — "Being able to save a version of the forecast" (David Watt/Instacart, 2025-07-01)
  • Effective date picker — Validated concept (Instacart, 2025-07-01)
  • Visual preview of impact — "I'd always want to see the last couple months of actuals" (Instacart, 2025-07-01)
  • Percentage-based adjustments — "Apply -5% on collections as a conservative assumption" (Personio, 2025-10-21)
  • Prototype UI consistency — "UI looks good... in line with the rest of the system" (Tom/Personio, 2026-02-18)
  • Category + entity + currency as filter dimensions — "the parameters work here... that kind of covers it" (Tom/Personio, 2026-02-18)
  • Percentage approach sufficient for treasury — "replicates 90% of the scenario analysis I've done in the past" (Tom/Personio, 2026-02-18)

Next Milestone

Validate skateboard prototype with ON and Personio — can they replace their Excel scenario workflows?

Feedback Log

Date Company Validated Summary File
2025-07-01 Instacart (Expert) Yes Strong validation of concept, build MVP with version tracking View
2026-02-18 Personio Yes Prototype UI validated, covers "90% of scenario analysis". Key asks: one-off absolute items, layered assumptions, save/share workflow, forecast explainability View
2026-02-18 ON Yes 8-9/10 excitement, part of 2026 goals. Key asks: working capital scenarios, IC categories, fixed scenario tracking vs rolling actuals, new entity scenarios View