Scenario Modelling: Priorities & Context¶
Date: 2026-02-17 Domain: Scenario Modelling
Priority Ranking¶
One confirmed job with strong validation. Six emerging signals suggest this domain will grow significantly once the core scenario feature ships.
Top Priority (Confirmed — on roadmap)¶
1. Apply percentage-based assumptions to forecasts while preserving underlying patterns - Sources: Personio (2 sessions) (Confirmed) - Current status: Not solved — users still use Excel for all scenario work - Why it matters: Every customer and prospect does scenario modelling in Excel. Personio: "I would like to keep that rationale in there and not just layer on top like a blanket 2 million a week additional." Simple percentage adjustments that preserve underlying weekly/daily patterns are more valuable than complex scenario trees. - On roadmap: Model what-if scenarios
Emerging — Needs Validation¶
| # | Potential Job | Source | Key Question |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Save and compare forecast versions | Instacart | High value — how common is version tracking? |
| 3 | Reconcile short-term forecast with annual P&L budget | Instacart | Overlap with bridging domain? |
| 4 | Create hybrid/blended forecasts | Personio | Is this a variant of #1 or a separate job? |
| 5 | Plan investment decisions using forward cash visibility | Personio | Overlap with investments-debt domain? |
| 6 | Create scenario plans for monthly investment activity | Personio | Same as above |
| 7 | Make quick operational decisions when plans change | ON | How does this differ from ad-hoc adjustments? |
| 8 | Adjust ML forecasts for market disruptors | Levi's | Important — how to layer assumptions on ML? |
The Pattern¶
The confirmed job is narrow and clear: percentage-based adjustments. But the emerging signals reveal a much bigger space around forecast versioning, comparison, and planning workflows. Once the basic scenario feature ships, expect demand for:
- Version comparison (#2) — "what changed between last week's forecast and this week's?"
- Budget reconciliation (#3) — bridging direct cash forecast to FP&A's P&L budget
- Investment planning (#5, #6) — scenarios for "what if we invest X for Y months?"
Next Steps¶
- Ship basic scenarios (#1) — percentage-based adjustments preserving patterns
- Validate version comparison demand (#2) — Instacart signal is strong, need more sources
- Clarify domain boundaries — #3 overlaps bridging, #5/#6 overlap investments-debt