Personio Feedback - 2026-02-18¶

TL;DR¶

Tom validated the what-if prototype UI and confirmed percentage-based category assumptions cover most treasury scenario needs. Key asks for next iteration: layer multiple assumptions (percentages + one-off absolute values) into named scenarios, save/share with management, and eventually integrate forecast model explainability so users can see and challenge the assumptions the model is already making before layering their own.

Overall Sentiment¶


Direction validated	Yes
Stage shown	Skateboard
Ready for next stage	Needs changes — one-off items and layering needed
Blocker for them?	No — currently using Excel, any improvement is a win

Source¶

Transcript: 2026-02-18 Weekly Sync
Date: 2026-02-18
Participants: Tom Thorn (Treasury)
Context: Weekly sync — Emma demoed early what-if prototype, followed by open discussion about scenarios, best/worst case, and forecast explainability

This Iteration: Validation¶

What they validated about the current design:

UI consistency — "UI looks good. It's kind of in line with the rest of the system when you're looking at forecasts. So I think it makes sense to maintain that."
Percentage-based assumptions per category — "based on the categorization of transfers... that kind of covers it. I don't think it needs to go into so much detail."
Entity and category as filters — "the parameters work here... entity and then the categorization, those are selections and then flexing it like that is helpful"
Currency dimension — "if I say my payroll expenses for my US and UK entities are going to increase by 15% and then I put that into currency, that's quite a good scenario test for my FX liquidity planning"
Multi-entity selection — Confirmed selecting multiple entities together is important (tax groupings, intercompany groupings)

Important Nuances¶

Treasury teams apply high-level assumptions from FP&A/strategy, not detailed revenue/cost analysis — "the treasury team isn't necessarily doing that at that level"
The percentage-based approach is sufficient for most treasury scenarios — Tom couldn't think of examples needing more granularity
Scenarios must be saveable and shareable — the workflow is: build scenario → share with management → get approval → then apply. Not instant application.

Future Iterations: Suggestions¶

High Value¶

One-off absolute value items — Not just percentages. Input specific amounts for events like acquisitions, capital markets activities, loan drawdowns. "50 million out of the door in six months time." Should be labelable individually.
Layered/stacked assumptions — Multiple assumptions assembled "like Legos" into a single scenario. Percentages + one-offs + sequences of events.
Save, name, and share scenarios — "Save it, share it with the management team. That's why you're doing the scenario analysis in the first place. And then once you have that, click to apply."
Best/worst case from historicals — Combine maximum outflows + minimum inflows from past 6 months as automated worst-case baseline. "Usually worst case scenario from a Treasury side is what you focus on."

Medium Value¶

Forecast explainability — When viewing a forecast value, see why it's that number. "If there was some sort of high level explanation of why it's higher or why it's landed on that value... that would be quite helpful visibility." This enables users to confirm model assumptions before adding their own.
Assumption override at category level — "Actually, that trend was based on settling overdue invoices. Next month we're going to revert back to normal." Correct the model's trend assumption.
Multiple severity levels — Not just best/worst but 4-5 levels. Toggle category groups on/off to see graduated severity.
Confidence bands as scenarios — Using forecast confidence intervals as built-in best/worst case. Tom: "That would be a preference to see that."

Longer Term¶

Account-type grouping — Apply scenarios to grouped account types (collections, operations, tax) not just entities. Important as Personio grows internationally.
Trapped/restricted cash scenarios — Model what happens if cash in certain countries can't be repatriated. Account-level scenario analysis for specific countries.
Assumption trend report — Summary report showing actuals from previous period → assumptions applied → forecast for next 13 weeks, per category group. A "pre-scenario" view to inspect before adding manual adjustments.

Questions Asked¶

Can you select multiple entities? → Yes, confirmed in prototype
Can you input absolute values, not just percentages? → Not yet, but noted as high priority
How does a scenario relate to what the forecast model already applies? → Key open question — need forecast explainability to bridge this gap

Raw Feedback Quotes¶

"UI looks good. I would say it's kind of in line with the rest of the system when you're looking at forecasts and so forth. So I think it makes sense to kind of maintain that." — Tom

"Based on the categorization of transfers... that kind of covers it, to be honest, I don't think it needs to go into so much detail." — Tom on percentage assumptions being sufficient

"Maybe at some point you want to layer in several different assumptions, you know, multiple. And that I'm sure from a data perspective, that's an absolute nightmare. But that would probably be what would be helpful to see." — Tom on layered assumptions

"50 million out of the door in six months time. And that's obviously important." — Tom on one-off absolute items

"Save it, share it with the management team. You know, that's why you're doing the scenario analysis in the first place." — Tom on save/share workflow

"All of this analysis, anything like this stays outside the system. And it's always like the most painful... you have to take all the data out of the system, you have to generate a whole new spreadsheet." — Tom on current state

"As soon as you shut that spreadsheet, it's out of date. It will never be looked at or used again." — Tom

"Usually worst case scenario from a Treasury side is what you focus on. And if all of those things happen together — like you have to think of the worst, worst, worst case." — Tom on worst-case focus

"This essentially replicates, I don't know, 90% of the scenario analysis I've done in the past probably. That's a huge tick." — Tom on the prototype direction

Action Items¶

[ ] Add one-off absolute value input to scenario prototype
[ ] Design save/name/share workflow for scenarios
[ ] Explore forecast explainability as a pre-scenario feature
[ ] Consider historical min/max as automated worst-case generator