Work in Progress
This document is a draft and not ready for use. Do not reference for decision-making yet.
Beyond Forecasting: Strategic Bets for Palm¶
Authors: Gurjit & Emma | Date: 2026-02-18 | For: Product Planning Session (w/c Feb 24) | Notion
Context: Palm today is a forecasting tool. To reach $150K+ ACVs and position as a "treasury intelligence layer," we need to expand beyond core cash forecasting.
The central question is not whether we build in these areas — it's how deep we go and in what order. A functional treasury intelligence product needs some level of coverage across most of these domains. Our ICP customers already deal with FX, investments, intercompany, and budget reconciliation daily. The strategic choice is where we go shallow (visibility only) vs deep (full workflows, intelligence, action) — and which areas we invest in first.
ICP reminder: Our sweet spot is ICP 3 — "Modern TMS Augmenters" ($1B–$8B revenue, 2K–10K employees, formal treasury team, already using Kyriba/SAP/GTreasury, disillusioned with TMS forecasting). British, Dutch, or US corporations with high recurring transaction volumes.
Confidence key¶
Throughout this doc, claims fall into three buckets:
- Evidence-based — grounded in customer quotes, multiple transcript sources, or shipped product. These are the pain points, customer evidence sections, and current product state.
- Best guess ⚠️ — reasonable inference from what we know, but not validated. Includes ACV estimates, competitive positioning, and build-vs-buy recommendations. Flagged with ⚠️ where important.
- Needs validation ❓ — numbers or claims that require input from engineering (effort), sales (pipeline data), or further research. Flagged with ❓.
1. Current Initiatives¶
These are areas where we're already building or have near-term plans. Lightweight assessment — outcome, status, key evidence, what's next.
A. Investment Tracking¶
| Outcome | See total liquidity (operational + invested cash) in one view. Make confident investment duration decisions. Stop tracking maturities in spreadsheets. |
| Status | In progress. Unified cash + investments view shipping. Investment ladder with maturities in development. |
| Key evidence | Personio: manual Google Sheets, BlackRock MMF movements invisible, wants to reduce buffer from 4M to 2M EUR. ON: "This tracking is a huge pain actually." Discogs: first Treasury Spring investment completed, data not yet in reports. CS signals (2026): "Investment tracking is becoming a must-have across the customer base." (7 sources) |
| What's next | Rate tracking, maturity alerts, "available to invest" calculation from forecast. Partner for data feeds (credit ratings, benchmark rates). |
B. Scenario Modelling¶
| Outcome | Stress-test forecasts without exporting to Excel. Answer "what if collections drop 10%?" instantly. Compare base vs pessimistic vs optimistic side-by-side. |
| Status | In progress (skateboard stage). Percentage-based adjustments on categories shipping. Feb 2026 prototype session with Personio validated layered assumptions, save & share, and worst-case-from-historicals. |
| Key evidence | Personio: "We'd like to be able to apply -5% on collections as a conservative assumption" while preserving intra-week patterns. ON: "If the tool is not flexible or intuitive to make scenarios, you end up doing it in Excel." Instacart: wants version saving and assumption tracking. Levi's: percentage-based disruptor adjustments with explanation fields. Treasury Dragons (industry): "What I'm looking forward to is tech solutions that tackle what-if scenarios." (7 sources — universal demand) |
| What's next | Multi-scenario comparison, FX rate overlays (ties into FX bet), save & share with stakeholders, "what if this payment doesn't happen" instant modelling. |
Strategic note: Core differentiator that justifies premium pricing. Key to the "intelligence layer" narrative — moves us from "reporting tool" to "decision tool." ⚠️ We believe this supports $100K+ ACVs but haven't tested willingness to pay.
C. Intercompany Activity¶
| Outcome | Accurately categorize IC transactions. Forecast IC flows that net to zero at group level but matter at entity level. Basic IC flow visibility in forecasts. |
| Status | In progress. IC categorization improvements underway. Basic IC flows being incorporated into forecasts. |
| Key evidence | ON: $8M Canada payment failure went unnoticed — "They only realized because they were like, 'how can we pay 16 million this week?'" Entity-level balances break without IC forecast. Personio: ZBA balance display "stopping him from using the platform"; IC categorization errors caused GBP forecast to show £7M weekly projections. Euroports: expects "fully accurately categorized intercompany transactions." (5 sources) |
| What's next | Better IC categorization accuracy, IC flow visibility in entity-level forecasts, basic IC loan register. |
Longer-term bet potential: Current work focuses on categorization + basic IC flows in forecasts. But IC could become a deeper strategic bet if commercially valuable. The opportunity space includes: funding suggestions, IC loans (Gurjit: 60+ loans tracked manually at Uber, Kyriba IC module was a "complete mess"), ZBA tracking, COBO/POBO, and in-house bank capabilities. This shifts from "fix IC data quality" to "IC intelligence platform" — but the commercial case needs validation. ⚠️ Gut estimate: $20-30K add-on for IC loan tracking alone, but no pricing validation yet.
2. Future Bets¶
These are areas where we see opportunity but haven't started building. Full assessment with competitive landscape and effort estimates.
A. FX Risk Visibility¶
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Customer outcome | See currency exposure across entities and time horizons. Understand the P&L impact of rate movements. Make informed decisions about when to trade or hedge — before it's urgent. |
| Target segment | Multi-currency ICP customers (ON, Personio, Levi's, Building Supply companies). High overlap with current pipeline. |
| ACV potential | ⚠️ Standalone FX tools price at $80–150K/yr (market comp — not validated for our ICP). Combined with forecasting, could get us to $150K+ total ACV. Needs pricing validation with Christian/Rodel. |
| Adoption (now vs future) | Now: ON actively kicking off risk management program (go-live target 2027). Multiple prospects are multi-currency (exact count ❓ — need sales data). Future: Hedging execution, hedge accounting. |
| Data we already have | Forecasts by account (which carry currency), FX rates feed. Core building blocks in place. |
First skateboard: Currency exposure view — show projected balances by currency over 13-week horizon. No new integrations needed.
Must-have version: Scenario overlays ("what if GBP drops 2%?"), exposure alerts, basic hedge tracking.
Customer evidence (11 sources):
- Personio — Has a defined FX policy: max 30% of total cash in foreign currencies (GBP/USD). Maintains 3-month runway buffer per currency. FX trades are "completely ad hoc, not scheduled" — invisible to forecast. Requested currency-level liquidity views and currency runway dashboards. (2025-11-12, 2025-11-18, 2025-12-10)
- ON Running — Dedicated currency dashboard session. Has FX hedges; uses currency balance forecast to decide when to hedge. Large USD surplus building. Amanda: "I love how this looks and it just feels very, very useful, but then you have to validate it." Kicking off risk management program, go-live 2027. (2025-09-02, 2025-10-07)
- IHG — Always surplus USD, needs to fund subsidiaries in other currencies. Manual FX trades. Kyriba's cash position worksheets are single-currency only — a hard limitation. (2025-04-07)
- Euroports — "FX flow visibility for future hedging program setup" — explicit requirement from business case. Operates in EUR (80-83%), USD (10%), GBP (~5%). (2025-12-11)
- Ocado — "Complex multi-currency operations (historically GBP-centric, now more global)" — needs cash forecasting improvements from a currency perspective. (2026-01-15)
- Volvo Cars — Conservative FX stance: "We try to keep as much in Euro and CHF as possible... if you're talking to a trader they will obviously be a bit more brave." FX is a daily operational consideration. (2025-03-27)
- Sales signals — Multi-currency support listed as high priority for Euroports, Ocado, TI Fluid Systems, CRCE. (2025 annual signal)
Competitive Landscape¶
| Player | Angle | vs Palm |
|---|---|---|
| Kyriba (Fire Apps) | Acquired FX module — top-down, consolidated view | We're bottoms-up: entity-level, category-level exposure. More granular. |
| Ion (Reval) | Enterprise FX/hedge accounting | Very complex, very expensive. We target mid-market. |
| Unbound | New entrant — FX execution infrastructure | Execution-focused, not forecasting. Potential partner for execution layer later. |
| Generic FX platforms | Standalone tools | Don't have the cash forecast underneath. We embed FX visibility into the forecast. |
Our angle: No one else starts with a bottoms-up cash forecast and adds FX on top. Legacy tools look at consolidated balances — they miss which entity, which category, which time period drives the exposure.
Build vs buy: Build the visibility/intelligence layer (core IP). Partner for execution (FX rates APIs — already have; potentially FX execution via Unbound or similar).
Effort Estimate¶
❓ Product-side gut estimate — not validated with engineering.
| Product/UX | Data/ML | Engineering | Time to Skateboard | Time to Must-Have |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New views on existing data | Minimal — use existing forecast + FX rates | Low — new visualizations, scenario overlay | 4–6 weeks | 3–4 months |
Key insight from Gurjit: FX visibility is low-effort because it's essentially a different slice of data we already have (forecast by currency instead of by account). No new integrations until we get to hedging execution.
B. Direct/Indirect Bridging (Budget vs Actuals)¶
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Customer outcome | Explain to the CFO why actual cash differs from budget. Automate the monthly T+1 cash burn analysis. Bridge the gap between treasury (direct method — bank transactions) and FP&A (indirect method — P&L budget). |
| Target segment | US and European corporates where treasury reports into the CFO. Particularly ICP 3 companies where FP&A collaboration is expected but painful. Euroports and Personio are confirmed evidence. |
| ACV potential | ⚠️ Part of the "reporting & analytics" upsell. Strengthens the case for Palm as the single pane of glass for the CFO — not just treasury. We think this contributes to $100K+ bundles but haven't validated. |
| Adoption (now vs future) | Now: Personio doing this manually on day 1 of every month. Euroports struggling with classification errors that "pollute" their bridge. US companies with strong FP&A culture care a lot. Future: Automated waterfall reports, working capital decomposition. |
| Data we already have | Transaction data, categorization. Need FP&A budget data (import or integration). |
First skateboard: Budget upload + forecast vs budget comparison view with variance drivers.
Must-have version: Waterfall visualization, working capital breakdown (AR vs AP timing), drill-down from variance to transactions, exportable CFO-ready reports.
Customer evidence (4 deep sources):
- Euroports — Matthias: "We want to know the deviation of the short term forecast, which is direct based versus the budget... I want to understand the drivers." Currently doing bridging bi-weekly at country level (Belgium, Spain, France) but it's too cumbersome. "We spend a lot of time asking the different local entities. What does this mean?" Wants to stop going back to Excel: "I really don't want to go back to Excel for nothing." (2025-10-27)
- Personio — Tom: "There's the keen focus on that day one reporting or early month reporting. It's a pain point." T+1 cash burn analysis takes hours, entirely manual. Three variance types needed: actuals vs direct forecast, actuals vs FP&A forecast, forecast vs forecast. FP&A "not even aware of the Palm platform" — budget data is "super confidential even within the company." (2025-12-04)
- Levi's — FP&A refreshes annually/quarterly; Treasury refreshes weekly. End-of-period divergence is common. Acquisitions: Treasury knows real cash impact 6-8 months before FP&A budget reflects it. Wants to track "timing vs permanent differences." (2025-12-11)
- Instacart — David: "The forecast is an opinion... I have to justify my opinions with facts." Must reconcile 13-week direct forecast with annual P&L budget, accounting for bonus timing, stock comp, and collection lags. (2025-07-01)
Competitive Landscape¶
| Player | Angle | vs Palm |
|---|---|---|
| Kyriba | Has budgeting module | Separate workflow, not integrated with forecasting |
| Anaplan / Pigment | FP&A planning tools | Strong on indirect side, no direct cash forecast |
| Excel | The real competitor | Manual waterfall charts, error-prone, time-consuming |
Our angle: We're the only tool that has the direct cash forecast AND can compare it to FP&A budgets. The bridge is a natural extension — no one else can show "here's what actually happened in the bank vs what FP&A expected, and here's why."
Build vs buy: Build. The comparison logic is straightforward. The hard part is getting budget data in — start with file upload, eventually ERP/FP&A tool integrations.
Effort Estimate¶
❓ Product-side gut estimate — not validated with engineering.
| Product/UX | Data/ML | Engineering | Time to Skateboard | Time to Must-Have |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate — budget import, waterfall viz | Low — comparison logic, not ML | Moderate — budget data model, variance engine | 6–8 weeks | 3–4 months |
C. Debt Management¶
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Customer outcome | Track debt facilities without spreadsheets. Monitor covenants, interest accruals, and repayment schedules in one place. See total net debt position alongside cash and investments. |
| Target segment | Companies with credit facilities — Avramar profile (syndicated loans, 6+ tranches). Also relevant for any ICP customer with revolving credit facilities or term loans. |
| ACV potential | ⚠️ Part of "full treasury platform" bundle alongside investments. Strengthens the $150K+ total ACV case. No standalone pricing data. |
| Adoption (now vs future) | Now: No active customer requests beyond Avramar. Investments are the priority. Future: Covenant tracking, automated interest accruals, credit rating monitoring. |
| Data we already have | Forecasts, bank balances. Would need debt instrument data (manual input initially). |
First skateboard: Debt facility register — track balances, rates, maturities, and repayment schedules.
Must-have version: Covenant monitoring, automated interest accruals, net debt position view (cash + investments - debt), credit facility utilization tracking.
Customer evidence (1 deep source):
- Avramar — Debt-heavy: syndicated loans with 6+ tranches, each with different rates. "A mistake is very easy to happen." Securities/collateral tracking is "a nightmare" — collateral includes fish farms, warehouses, boats, and biomass. (2025-07-09)
Competitive Landscape¶
| Player | Angle | vs Palm |
|---|---|---|
| Kyriba | Full TMS with debt module | Heavyweight, expensive, hard to use |
| Bloomberg Terminal | Gold standard for rates/data | $25K+/yr per seat — our customers can't justify it |
| Spreadsheets | The real competitor | Manual, error-prone, but flexible and free |
Our angle: Lightweight debt tracking embedded in the forecast. "Your debt repayments show up as future cash outflows automatically." Combined with investment tracking, gives a true net liquidity position.
Build vs buy: Build. Partner for data feeds (benchmark rates, credit ratings). Natural extension of investment tracking — shares the instrument data model.
Effort Estimate¶
❓ Product-side gut estimate — not validated with engineering.
| Product/UX | Data/ML | Engineering | Time to Skateboard | Time to Must-Have |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New workflows (instrument input, facility tracking) | Moderate — accrual calculations, covenant logic | Moderate — extends investment data model | 2–3 months (after investments ship) | 3–6 months |
D. Stablecoins / Cross-Border Payments¶
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Customer outcome | Faster, cheaper intercompany settlements. Reduce FX conversion costs on cross-border payments. Potentially 24/7 settlement vs banking hours. |
| Target segment | ⚠️ Forward-looking treasury teams at tech-savvy companies. Niche today — we assume it's growing but have no data on adoption rates in our ICP. |
| ACV potential | Unclear — market still forming. Could be a differentiator for positioning ("future of treasury") more than immediate revenue. |
| Adoption (now vs future) | Future: This is a 12–24 month bet. Very few treasury teams actively using stablecoins today. Regulatory landscape still shifting. |
| Data we already have | IC transaction data, entity structures. Would need new rails (stablecoin APIs, wallet integrations). |
First skateboard: [TBD — needs more research on available APIs/partners]
Must-have version: [TBD — depends on regulatory clarity and partner ecosystem]
Customer evidence: None. Zero mentions across all transcripts, signals, and knowledge files. No customer or prospect has raised stablecoins, crypto, or cross-border payment rails in any conversation to date.
Competitive Landscape¶
| Player | Angle | vs Palm |
|---|---|---|
| Circle / USDC | Stablecoin rails | Infrastructure provider — potential partner |
| Wise / Airwallex | Cross-border payments | Execution layer, not decision layer |
| Bridge (Stripe) | Stablecoin payment API | Developer-focused infrastructure |
Our angle: [Needs more work — this is the least defined bet]
Build vs buy: Almost certainly partner/integrate rather than build. Our value is in the intelligence layer, not payment rails.
Effort Estimate¶
❓ Product-side gut estimate — not validated with engineering.
| Product/UX | Data/ML | Engineering | Time to Skateboard | Time to Must-Have |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entirely new domain | High — new data types, settlement logic | High — wallet/API integrations, compliance | [TBD] | 12+ months |
3. Effort / Impact Matrix¶
Illustrative — to be refined with the team.
| High Reward | Medium Reward | Lower Reward | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Effort | FX Risk Visibility — Data exists, new views needed. ON ready to co-develop. | ||
| Medium Effort | Scenario Modelling ✅ (WIP) — Universal demand. Hard UX/ML problem, huge differentiation. | Bridging — High value for US/CFO-facing orgs. Expands buyer beyond treasury. | IC Activity ✅ (WIP) — Incremental categorization improvements. Longer-term bet TBD. |
| Higher Effort | Investment Tracking ✅ (WIP) — Already in progress. Quick wins shipping. | Debt Management — Extends investment model. Narrow evidence base (Avramar only). | Stablecoins / Cross-Border — New infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, small market today. |
4. Strategic Framing: Where Does This Take Us?¶
⚠️ This timeline is aspirational, not planned. The sequencing reflects our current best guess about what's achievable — not engineering commitments.
``` TODAY (Forecasting Tool) 12 MONTHS (Intelligence Layer) 24 MONTHS (Decision Platform)
Cash Forecasting ──────────────► + FX Risk Visibility ──────────────► + FX Hedging Recommendations Scenario Modelling ────────────► + FX Scenarios ("what if GBP -2%") ─► + Action Recommendations Investments (basic) ───────────► + Debt Management ─────────────────► + Automated Accruals Categorization ────────────────► + Budget vs Actuals Bridging ───────► + Automated CFO Reporting IC Categorization ─────────────► + IC Loan Tracking ─────────────────► + IC Forecasting + Netting Stablecoins (explore) ```
What we know — and what we don't¶
Where decisions happen today: Palm forecasts and shows cash positions. Scenario modelling and investment visibility are in progress but not yet shipped. The bet is: can we become the place where treasurers make confident decisions about cash, investments, FX, and IC?
Where actions happen today: This is a blind spot we need to map. When a treasurer decides to move money, hedge a position, or make an investment — what system do they open? Where do payments get initiated? Where do FX trades get executed? We don't have a clear picture of these "action surfaces" across our customer base, and we need one before deciding whether (and how) to move into execution.
Open question: Are we best served going deep on the decision/intelligence layer — or is there an opportunity to capture execution too? The answer depends on understanding the current tooling landscape for payments, FX trading, and investment execution across our ICP. This needs discovery work with customers and prospects.
Summary by bet¶
Key Pain column is evidence-based. ACV Impact, Competition, and Build vs Buy are best guesses ⚠️ — see confidence key above.
| Bet | Stage | ACV Impact | Key Pain | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario Modelling | ✅ In progress | Core differentiator for $100K+ ACVs | Everyone exports to Excel for what-ifs | Continue. WIP. Universal demand, key to "decision tool" positioning. |
| Investment Tracking | ✅ In progress | Part of $150K+ bundle | Manual G-sheets, no unified liquidity view | Continue. Already shipping. Quick wins landing. |
| IC Activity | ✅ In progress | Deepens existing accounts | Kyriba IC module is a "complete mess"; $8M payment failures | Continue current scope. Evaluate deeper IC bet based on commercial signal. |
| FX Risk Visibility | Future bet | $80–150K standalone; $150K+ combined | No bottoms-up exposure view; decisions made blind | Top new bet. Data exists, ON ready, highest ACV upside. |
| Bridging | Future bet | Strengthens $100K+ bundle; pulls CFO into Palm | T+1 monthly analysis takes hours | Strong for US expansion. Medium effort, high stickiness. |
| Debt Management | Future bet | Part of $150K+ bundle | Spreadsheet-based, error-prone facility tracking | After investments. Natural extension, narrow evidence base. |
| Stablecoins / Cross-Border | Future bet | Unclear — market forming | FX conversion costs, slow settlement | Watch and explore. Revisit in 6 months. |
The big question¶
Palm today sits firmly in the decision layer — forecasting, visibility, scenarios. The meeting surfaced a tension:
- Option A: Go deeper on decisions. FX visibility, bridging, better scenarios. Get so good at "what should I do?" that we become indispensable before anyone touches an action button.
- Option B: Start exploring execution. Understand where actions happen today, find thin integration points (e.g., trigger a trade via API, initiate a payment), and start capturing value on the action side too.
- Option C: Both, sequentially. Map the action landscape now (via discovery), ship FX visibility and bridging in parallel, then make an informed execution bet in 6 months.
To decide, we need: A clear map of where our ICP customers take treasury actions today — which systems, which workflows, which pain points. Action item: probe this in every discovery call and CS check-in for the next 8 weeks.
Open Questions / Gaps to Fill¶
- [ ] FX: What specific currencies do our current customers/prospects manage? (Need data from sales conversations)
- [ ] FX: What does ON's risk management program timeline look like in detail? (Gurjit to follow up with Lucia)
- [ ] Investments: How much additional ACV does investment tracking unlock? (Christian/Rodel — pricing validation)
- [ ] Stablecoins: Which treasury teams are actively exploring this? (Rodel — probe in discovery calls)
- [ ] IC: How many prospects have 50+ entities? (Qualify IC complexity in pipeline)
- [ ] IC: Is there a commercial case for deeper IC intelligence beyond categorization? (Probe in CS check-ins)
- [ ] All: What % of current pipeline cares about each bet? (Rodel to tag in CRM)
- [ ] Competitive: Get Christian's Claude-generated competitive analysis for reference
- [ ] ACV: All pricing estimates in this doc are gut feel — need validation with Christian/Rodel against actual deal data
- [ ] Effort: All build estimates need engineering review before committing to any sequencing
This is a scaffold — refine with Gurjit before the planning session. Gaps marked [TBD] need input.