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Scenarios / Assumptions Studio

Status: Planned

Domain: Scenario Modelling Linear Projects: None yet

What It Does

Palm will enable treasury teams to create and manage forecast scenarios - alternative views of the future that model different assumptions. Instead of maintaining separate spreadsheets for "base case," "conservative," and "aggressive" scenarios, users will be able to apply adjustments on top of their base forecast while preserving underlying patterns.

The key insight from customer research is that simple percentage-based adjustments (e.g., "-5% on collections") are more valuable than complex scenario modeling. Treasury teams need to quickly answer "what if?" questions without rebuilding entire forecasts.

Planned Capabilities

Capability Status Notes
Percentage-based adjustments Planned Apply +/- % to categories
Pattern-preserving adjustments Planned Keep weekly patterns when adjusting totals
Named scenarios Planned Save and compare multiple scenarios
Scenario comparison Planned Side-by-side view of scenarios
Forecast version tracking Planned Save and recall past forecasts
Investment planning scenarios Planned Model impact of investment decisions

Jobs to Fulfill

From scenario-modelling/jobs.md

1. Apply percentage-based assumptions to forecasts while preserving underlying patterns

Desired Outcomes: - [ ] Minimize the risk of overestimating collections or underestimating outflows - [ ] Increase the ability to model scenarios quickly (e.g., -5% on collections, +10% for seasonality) - [ ] Reduce manual effort in creating multiple forecast scenarios - [ ] Minimize the loss of weekly/daily patterns when adjusting forecast totals

How Palm Will Address This: - Simple percentage adjustments at category level - Pattern preservation when applying adjustments - Multiple scenarios without duplicating data

2. Save and compare forecast versions to track how assumptions changed over time (Emerging)

Desired Outcomes: - [ ] Minimize the difficulty of remembering past forecast assumptions - [ ] Increase ability to attribute variance to assumption changes vs actuals variance - [ ] Reduce unexplained variance by tracking all assumption changes systematically

How Palm Will Address This: - Named forecast snapshots - Assumption change log - Variance attribution between versions

3. Make quick operational decisions when plans change (Emerging)

Desired Outcomes: - [ ] Minimize the time to model a "what if this payment doesn't happen" scenario - [ ] Reduce the need to use Excel for ad-hoc calculations - [ ] Increase confidence that scenario impact is accurately calculated

How Palm Will Address This: - Quick adjustment interface - Real-time scenario impact calculation - No Excel required for ad-hoc scenarios

4. Create scenario plans for investment activity (Emerging)

Desired Outcomes: - [ ] Minimize the ad-hoc nature of investment decisions - [ ] Increase ability to track planned vs actual investment activity - [ ] Reduce the cognitive load of making investment decisions on a rolling basis

How Palm Will Address This: - Investment scenario modeling - Plan vs actual tracking - Structured monthly planning workflow

Pain Points to Address

Pain Point Priority Notes
Duplicating forecasts for each scenario is time-consuming High Core problem to solve
No way to apply systematic percentage adjustments High Key customer request
Keeping multiple scenarios in sync High Scenario management
Blanket adjustments destroy patterns High Pattern preservation essential
TMS inflexibility drives Excel usage High Must be easier than Excel
Making overly conservative investment decisions Medium Requires forecast integration

Design Considerations

Based on customer feedback:

  1. Simplicity over complexity - Users want percentage adjustments, not complex scenario trees
  2. Pattern preservation - Adjusting a monthly total should distribute across days intelligently
  3. Transparency - Clear visibility into what adjustments are applied
  4. Speed - Must be faster than doing it in Excel
  5. Reusability - Save scenarios and adjustment templates

How It Will Work (Technical)

TODO: Define architecture

Component Technology Notes
Scenario storage
Adjustment engine
Pattern distribution
Version tracking
API endpoints

Last updated: 2026-02-17