Scenario Modelling - Jobs & Desired Outcomes¶
Generated from .jobs.json — do not edit directly.
Confirmed Outcomes¶
Corroborated by 2+ sources
Job: Apply percentage-based assumptions to forecasts while preserving underlying patterns¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize the risk of overestimating collections or underestimating outflows | ❌ Not solved | — |
| Increase the ability to model scenarios quickly (e.g., -5% on collections) | ❌ Not solved | — |
| Reduce manual effort in creating multiple forecast scenarios | ❌ Not solved | — |
| Minimize the loss of weekly/daily patterns when adjusting forecast totals | ❌ Not solved | — |
Gaps: Scenarios feature not yet built. Users still use Excel for this.
Sources: - Personio (2025-10-21) - "We'd like to be able to apply -5% on collections as a conservative assumption" - Tom - Personio (2025-12-04) - "if there was the opportunity to have like a percentage flex broadly across all of our Palm generated forecast by a percentage... I would like to keep that rationale in there and not just layer on top like a blanket 2 million a week additional" - Tom - ON (2026-02-18) - "Very intuitive and, I think, very fitting for Treasury. Like scenario planning." - Amanda, Rodrigo; Rated 8-9/10 excitement. Part of ON's 2026 goals. Saw use cases for working capital (AR/AP/inventory), FX currency impact, new market entry. - Personio (2026-02-18) - "I can probably go away and say we need to apply this to our balances in six months time with some planned activities there. With this, we would be able to do it, I think." - Tom; Validated prototype UI. Emphasized need for layered assumptions (multiple per forecast), one-off absolute values (acquisitions, capital markets), and save/name/share with management before applying.
Emerging Signals¶
Single source - needs corroboration
Potential Job: Save and compare forecast versions to track how assumptions changed over time¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the difficulty of remembering past forecast assumptions ("What was my opinion in March?") - Increase ability to attribute variance to assumption changes vs actuals variance - Reduce unexplained variance by tracking all assumption changes systematically
Source: Instacart (2025-07-01) - "Being able to save a version of the forecast and call this the July 1st forecast... you can compare July forecast to June forecast... the system could tell you: you changed these three assumptions" - David Watt
Potential Job: Reconcile short-term cash forecast with annual P&L budget¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize manual translation between accrual-based budget and cash forecast - Increase confidence that 13-week forecast aligns with budget year-end expectations - Reduce timing mismatch errors (collection lags, bonus payment timing, stock compensation)
Source: Instacart (2025-07-01) - "That's the art of it... here's our P&L budget for the year. And you have to say, well, what would that look like on a cash basis?" - David Watt; Bonus timing, stock comp, collection lags
Potential Job: Create hybrid/blended forecasts that combine different assumption levels¶
Potential Outcomes: - Increase flexibility in forecast configuration (conservative vs aggressive options) - Minimize the effort to switch between forecast scenarios - Reduce the need to maintain entirely separate forecast files
Source: Personio (2025-10-21) - Discussion of "hybrid forecast blending" with conservative/aggressive options
Potential Job: Plan investment decisions using forward cash visibility¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the uncertainty when deciding investment duration (1 month vs 3 months) - Increase confidence to lock cash in for longer periods when forecasts show adequate liquidity - Reduce overly conservative investment decisions due to lack of forward visibility - Minimize the frequency of guesswork in investment timing
Source: Personio (2026-01-28) - "This essentially helps maybe in the future... we shouldn't be investing for one month. We can say, no, we should invest two or three months because we're comfortable with how much cash we're going to have." - Tom
Potential Job: Create scenario plans for investment activity at the beginning of each month¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the ad-hoc nature of investment decisions throughout the month - Increase ability to track planned vs actual investment activity - Reduce the cognitive load of making investment decisions on a rolling basis
Source: Personio (2026-01-28) - "if we were able to say that we have this beginning of the month plan, scenario based, and this is the investment activity that we're expecting to take and then be able to convert back to that, that would be great" - Tom
Potential Job: Make quick operational decisions when plans change¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the time to model a "what if this payment doesn't happen" scenario - Reduce the need to use Excel for ad-hoc calculations - Increase confidence that scenario impact is accurately calculated
Source: ON (2024-11-19) - "If the tool is not flexible or intuitive to make scenarios or adjustments, you end up doing it in Excel. And I think that's the worst that can happen to a TMS." - Lucia
Potential Job: Compose multiple assumptions into named event scenarios (e.g., store opening, acquisition)¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the effort to model multi-faceted business events as coherent scenarios - Increase reusability of individual assumptions across different scenario combinations - Reduce the complexity of understanding combined impacts from multiple simultaneous changes
Source: ON (2026-02-18) - Amanda, Rodrigo; Lego-piece mental model resonated strongly. Amanda/Rodrigo saw immediate use for Swedish store opening scenario (combining increased SEK payroll, capex, etc). Emma described composable assumptions.
Potential Job: Track fixed-point scenarios against rolling actuals over time¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the loss of scenario baselines when forecasts re-baseline to actuals - Increase ability to see whether actuals are tracking best case, baseline, or worst case - Reduce confusion when comparing original scenario assumptions to updated forecasts
Source: ON (2026-02-18) - Jennifer (raised), Amanda/Rodrigo (validated); Jennifer raised key design tension: rolling forecast re-baselines to actuals, wiping out scenario comparison. Need to 'fix' a scenario and overlay actuals on top. ON team agreed.
Potential Job: Define worst/best case scenarios from historical extremes¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the effort to calculate worst-case cash position from historical min/max by category group - Increase the ability to layer multiple severity levels by toggling category groups on/off - Reduce dependency on manual spreadsheet analysis for stress testing
Source: Personio (2026-02-18) - "Usually worst case scenario from a Treasury side is what you focus on. And if all of those things happen together — like you have to think of the worst, worst, worst case." - Tom; Combining maximum outflows with minimum inflows from historical data over past 6 months to establish worst-case cash positions.
Potential Job: Adjust ML-based forecasts for market disruptors (COVID, tariffs, etc.)¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize manual input by using reusable percentage-based adjustments - Increase transparency of adjustment reasons for future analysis - Reduce duplicate work when disruptors are already reflected in historical ML data
Source: Levi's (2025-12-11) - "Maybe I just need percentages of how I want to adjust the number... and an explanation for the next poor soul who goes into the system and tries to understand what went on there. Oh, we did an adjustment. Downward adjustment of 20%. What was that about? And you look at... Maybe it's the same factor. Oh, so you just check. You just check. It's already in there." - Dette
Note: sm-e-004 (scenario-based investment planning) builds on investments-debt id-002 (foundational investment visibility and tracking). id-002 provides the data infrastructure (seeing maturities, tracking positions); sm-e-004 is the strategic use case (using forecast scenarios to decide investment duration and timing).